Forecasting Pledges Before They Exist: A Simple Framework for Campaign Cash Flow

If you’ve ever had a CFO pop into your office (or Zoom) and say:

“Quick question… when will the money from this campaign actually come in?”

…you probably felt a small wave of panic.

Not because it’s a bad question. It’s a great question.

It’s just that most fundraisers live in the gray and nuance of:

• “likely but not yet committed,”

• “they said they’re very interested,”

• “we’re waiting for their board to meet,”

  
  

…while finance lives in the black-and-white world of:

• pledged vs. not pledged,

• cash vs. not cash,

• booked vs. not booked.

  
  

So when someone asks you for a forecast, it can feel like being asked to translate a watercolor painting into a spreadsheet.

The goal here isn’t to pretend we know things we don’t. It’s to build a simple bridge between:

• the relational reality of fundraising, and

• the cash-flow reality your CFO and board need to plan wisely.

Here’s a 3-step framework that keeps things honest and usable.

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Step 1: Sort Your Prospects Into Simple Tiers

Start with what you already know: who’s most likely to make a bigger gift.

Create 2–3 tiers based on capacity + relationship strength:

• Tier A: Top 10–15 households/funders (strong relationships, high capacity)

• Tier B: Solid prospects with good potential

• Tier C: Broader community of likely smaller or mid-level donors

For each tier, estimate:

• A typical gift size, and

• How many gifts you might reasonably see in that tier.

Example:

• Tier A: 5 gifts at $250,000

• Tier B: 10 gifts at $50,000

• Tier C: 25 gifts at $10,000

You’ve already moved from “we hope to raise $X million” to “here’s roughly where it could come from.”

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Step 2: Make a Best Guess at When Pledges Might Be Secured

You cannot perfectly predict when cash will hit the bank, but you can often reasonably guess when decisions are likely to be made.

Think in windows, not exact dates. Look at each prospect and ask:

• Have we already had a vision conversation?

• Are we ready to ask with a range?

• Do they need a board/family decision?

• Are there obvious timing anchors (their grant proposal deadline, your campaign milestones)?

Then group your prospects into appropriate quarters, something as simple as:

• Likely to decide in Q1 202Y

• Likely to decide in Q2 202Y

• Likely to decide in Q3 202Y

• Likely to decide in Q4 202Y

You’re not promising dates. You’re giving your CFO a reasonable shape of when pledges may be booked and when dollars may start to come in.

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Step 3: Apply a Reality Check With Simple Probabilities

Finally, acknowledge that not every prospect will give at the level you hope. Assign confidence percentages for each prospect or tier.

Use 2–3 confidence levels and percentages, like:

• High confidence: 80%

• Medium confidence: 50%

• Low confidence: 30%

Now, when you add up each quarter, you can say:

“Weighted for reality, we’d expect pledges in Q1 202Y of about $350,000.”

Typically, your CFO will help determine the pledge payment cadence, using their own models, assumptions, and risk tolerance. Your job isn’t to predict exact payment schedules—it’s to give your best estimate of who is likely to give, at what level, and in roughly which quarter.

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Bottom Line

When your CFO asks, “When will the money come in?” they’re not trying to put you on the spot. They’re trying to:

• Plan for construction and cash needs

• Avoid surprises

• Translate big vision into responsible numbers

You don’t have to abandon the gray, relational world of fundraising to answer them.

You do need a simple way to say:

• “Here’s who we think will give.”

• “Here’s roughly when we think decisions might land (timing windows).”

• “Here’s our best realistic range, not just the rosy version (probabilities).”

That’s how you move from:

“Honestly, I have no idea…”

to:

“We can’t know for sure yet—but here’s our best, honest forecast, and how we’ll keep updating it.”

And that’s usually exactly what a good CFO—and a healthy board—are hoping to hear.

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Frances Roen is the Founder of Fundraising Sol and a fundraising consultant with two decades of experience. She is deeply passionate about relationship building, individual donor work, and supporting nonprofit professionals’ health and wellness to enable them to deliver their best work.