Embracing Uncertainty: The Space Between the Goal and the Path

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One of the most common feelings organizations experience at the beginning of a campaign is this:

"We know what we need to raise. We're just not sure how we're going to get there."

A new building needs to be built. A historic property needs to be preserved. Programs need room to grow. The costs have been estimated, the need is clear, and the fundraising goal has been drafted.

Then comes the uncomfortable part: the uncertainty.

Most organizations have never raised this much money before. They may know some of their strongest supporters, but they don't know exactly who will make the largest gifts, who will step forward as a campaign leader, or which conversations will open unexpected doors. In other words, they know where they need to go, but they don't know exactly how they'll get there.

That's where campaign planning becomes so important.

One of the most valuable tools in campaign planning is the gift chart and accompanying depth chart. Unfortunately, many people misunderstand what these tools are designed to do.

A gift chart is not a prediction, a promise, or a list of gift sizes that are guaranteed to happen. Instead, it is a framework that helps us understand what success would likely require. If a campaign needs to raise $5 million, the gift chart helps estimate how many leadership gifts, major gifts, and community gifts may be needed to reach that goal.

The depth chart takes the process one step further. It helps identify whether enough potential prospects exist at each level. Do we have enough people who could potentially make a six-figure gift? Are there enough prospects to support the middle levels of the chart? Where do we have depth, and where do we have gaps?

Those answers matter because they help focus effort where it is needed most.

The reality is that very few campaigns unfold exactly as planned. Some donors give more than expected. Others give less. Some prospects who look promising never engage. Meanwhile, entirely new prospects emerge through board members, volunteers, existing donors, and community connections.

The names on the chart often change. The gift levels sometimes change. The path changes.

But the chart still serves its purpose.

Think of it less as a roadmap and more as a compass. A roadmap suggests every turn has already been mapped out. A compass simply points you in the right direction.

Campaign planning works much the same way. The gift chart and depth charts don't tell us exactly who will make every gift. It helps us understand what is likely needed and where we should focus our attention. More importantly, it helps us identify gaps early enough to do something about them.

Perhaps the biggest mistake organizations make is believing they need certainty before they can move forward. They want to know exactly who will give, exactly what each donor will contribute, and exactly how the campaign will unfold. But fundraising rarely works that way.

Instead, campaigns succeed because organizations gather enough information to make informed decisions. They identify opportunities, test assumptions through donor conversations, and continually refine their understanding of what is possible. Over time, uncertainty begins to give way to information, and the path becomes clearer.

The goal of campaign planning is not to eliminate uncertainty. The goal is to create enough clarity and confidence to move forward despite it.

Because campaigns are rarely built by organizations that had every answer from the beginning. They're built by organizations willing to take the next step, learn what they can, and trust that the path will become clearer as they walk it.

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Frances Roen is the Founder of Fundraising Sol and a fundraising consultant with two decades of experience. She is deeply passionate about relationship building, individual donor work, and supporting nonprofit professionals’ health and wellness to enable them to deliver their best work.